Water Street AI Platform
KO
Katie Ossman

Financial Analysis: 2026 Bonus Grid

GMLx Acquisition

Target Revenue

$88.2M

FY 2026

Target EBITDA

$15.9M

18.0% margin

Adj. EBITDA

18.0%

After adjustments

Bonus Pool

$2.0M

At 1.0x multiplier

Bonus Payout Matrix

Revenue % (horizontal) vs EBITDA % (vertical)

EBITDA87.5%90%92.5%95%97.5%100%102.5%105%107.5%110%112.5%
122.5%0.9x1.0x1.2x1.4x1.5x1.6x1.7x1.8x1.9x2.0x2.0x
115%0.7x0.9x1.0x1.2x1.3x1.4x1.5x1.6x1.7x1.8x1.9x
107.5%0.5x0.7x0.9x1.0x1.1x1.2x1.3x1.4x1.5x1.6x1.7x
100%0.3x0.5x0.7x0.8x0.9x1.0x1.1x1.2x1.3x1.4x1.5x
92.5%0.0x0.3x0.5x0.7x0.8x0.9x1.0x1.1x1.2x1.3x1.4x
85%0.0x0.0x0.3x0.5x0.6x0.7x0.8x0.9x1.0x1.1x1.2x
77.5%0.0x0.0x0.0x0.0x0.3x0.5x0.6x0.7x0.8x0.8x0.9x
0x
1.0x
2.0x
EBITDA Sensitivity Analysis

Impact of revenue miss on EBITDA

5% Miss$14.5M
10% Miss$12.3M
15% Miss$10.7M
Proportionate
MIS-concentrated
EPC-concentrated
Scenario Q&A

"What happens if MIS misses by 15%?"

Under a 15% revenue miss concentrated in MIS:

  • Total Revenue: $75.0M (14.9% below target)
  • Adj. EBITDA: $10.7M (32.7% below target)
  • Bonus multiplier: 0.85x - Pool: $1.7M
Source: 2026 Bonus Grid_v5.xlsx, Budget Sensitivity